June 24, 2016, at 7 o’clock in the morning local time, United Kingdom a referendum on whether to stay in the EU all recount concluded, final result is locked in: 51.89% support out of the EU, 48.11% chose to stay in the EU. United Kingdom became the first to vote out of the EU countries.
Our first time to invite Ireland Cork University, Shanghai Jiaotong University Wu Weiyi, interviewed overnight as far away as Belgium the European Academy of Sciences academician, editor of the European review Xiao·dehan (Theo D’haen) Professor, listen to his United Kingdom off views of Europe and eventually became fact.
Dangerous populist may wear the mask of democracy. William Derham that ultimately decided the referendum outcome, is more of an emotional, rather than fact-based judgments. The referendum and the United Kingdom is closely related to domestic politics, some populist politicians, about some of the public mood, he worried it was decided and the United Kingdom to pay in the future economic, political and social costs.
The other hand, the United Kingdom off the crisis in Europe is the EU, but also the opportunity for reform of the European Union. William Derham wants the EU leaders to learn, make the Union decision-making more effective, a more democratic organization.
This article started to explore and debate the public number: tansuoyuzhengming, the surging authorized publication of the press.
The European Academy of Sciences, Xiao·dehan, editor of the European review (Theo D’haen) Professor
Referendums in Europe is not a conventional means, United Kingdom why off the beaten path?
Wu Weiyi: the referendum with more than 35 million United Kingdom nationals, is a voting population of 72%, is the one with the highest percentage since 1980, what do you think?
Xiao·dehan: the involvement of the high proportion of the population, and of course illustrates the referendum for United Kingdom nationals, it is very important, they are very focused on this matter. In my opinion, this is a good thing, because it shows democracies do play a role. As regards the results it brings out of the EU, is not what most people expect, is not what most people want to see.
Wu Weiyi: but you still think it means democracy play a role?
Xiao·dehan: Yes. Of course, this is not a simple Yes and no answers. Most United Kingdom national did participate in the referendum, in this sense, democracy plays a role.
However, the referendum itself is not democratic, and that I am not very sure. Because before the referendum campaign using words, is very biased and directivity. We can see that the United Kingdom some of the media reports, is not very objective.
So, overall, I think that the final results of the referendum, is more of an emotional, rather than fact-based judgments.
Wu Weiyi: I noticed that some reports in Europe, most should not apply for a referendum in the first place, it is actually a populist politicians are manipulating people’s emotions, what do you think?
Xiao·dehan: it is a mainstream view in Europe. Referendum is not a conventional means for Europe as a whole. As many people know, the referendum is very easy to be populist and manipulation by populist politicians. In my opinion, such as Boris Johnson and jier·falaji exit the camp (Nigel Farrage) such a person, apparently belonging to the populist side, they are very easy to use event such a referendum.
Of course, we have to be careful with the United Kingdom domestic politics are directly related. Because Boris Johnson wants to replace David Cameron to become the next Prime Minister. So this is not just a referendum on the European Union, Europe’s internal politics, is a United Kingdom domestic politics.
Wu Weiyi: Cameron has just announced his resignation?
Xiao·dehan: Yes, Mr Cameron is just a few minutes ago, announced after the end of the transitional period, will be left on the official from the Prime Minister.
Wu Weiyi: which is bound to cause United Kingdom politics, the new round of earthquake?
Xiao·dehan: Yes. There are two possible situations: one is now an absolute majority of seats in the Parliament of the conservative party, will elect a new party leader, who will replace Mr Cameron’s position; the second is soon to be new elections, and possible collapse of the Tory party itself. This is two things.
Wu Weiyi: do you think for the rest of the European Union, United Kingdom off can result into the Ou Gong says was a lesson, or you can learn from? Specifically, how to deal with public sentiment? How to deal with this kind of populist sentiment?
Xiao·dehan: of course. For example, a referendum in Belgium is not going to happen, because Belgium’s Constitution prohibits referendum. We see this where there may be potential risks of populism, such as controlled referendum was a populist, also in danger of possible bribe votes, so Belgium Constitution prohibits referendum.
But you see now in the Netherlands, already have the right to vote required in the Netherlands launched the same referendum, the risk does not exist. However, I think other countries will learn from it, and learn a little something.
However, the problem is that specific political position determines what you can learn from it. For example, if you are right, you will see further drive and promote people’s emotions, and ultimately achieve the purpose leaving the EU in this category. However, for the Middle, or on the left, which should be learned or lessons learned, is the reform of the European Union should take, make some changes, so that such a thing never happens.
But we have to see that in history, United Kingdom relationship with continental Europe has always been more tortuous. In fact, in Europe there is a long United Kingdom of isolationism. In many ways, the United Kingdom out of the EU referendum results, should be said to be the continuation of history.
United Kingdom exit will incite strong anti-EU forces rise
Wu Weiyi: before and after the referendum, we see in a rapid fall in the exchange rate in the short term. This is can be seen as, after the referendum indicates possible very negative economic consequences of it?
Xiao·dehan: not just Sterling, the euro also tumbled, but not so as Sterling fell so dramatically rapid. But to see this fall in the exchange rate usually has its two sides.
One hand will, of course, the United Kingdom and other European Union countries long term impact on the trade, also means United Kingdom all the riches of the country would quickly shrink.
But we would also like to see the other hand, is the United Kingdom’s products, goods, the big drop in price of services provided, be beneficial to boost its exports, its sales rose in the world trade. And this is in fact the exit at the camp advocating, emphasized that one exit of the benefits.
Wu Weiyi: Judging from the distribution of voting, there is a very clear trend: United Kingdom domestic comparative abundance, than in areas with a high level of education, most of the population chose to remain in the EU and in some of the poorer, and some rural areas, lower levels of education, chose to leave the European Union. It actually renders the United Kingdom a tearing of the national situation. What do you think of this phenomenon? Can be seen as a microcosm of the whole of the European Union do?
Xiao·dehan: first, what I’m saying is, the referendum vote shows the difference, not just the opposition between the rich and the poor, and urban and rural opposition, but also in England and Northern Ireland, for example, a kind of opposition between England and Scotland. As you can see, in Northern Ireland and Scotland, and most of the voters are voting in the European Union. Now there’s a prediction, that will soon see a new referendum in Scotland, is to leave the entire United Kingdom. In Northern Ireland already have voted to leave the United Kingdom and Ireland together so that the entire island became a unified country-wide. This is one aspect.
Moreover, apart from the confrontation between rich and poor and voting results also reflect a characteristic, is the opposite of relative ageing of the population and among young people. From what I’ve seen of the report, my personal analysis is, in most cases, relatively old majority vote to leave the European Union, and most young people chose to remain in the EU. The situation is very worrying phenomenon. Because it means that the whole United Kingdom most people choose the last, rather than the future. This is very worrying.
The situation for other EU countries, what does that mean? We noted that in other EU countries there is a very strong anti-EU movement, such as in Finland, and Denmark and the Netherlands, and even in France there. United Kingdom the referendum would greatly encourage their anti-EU activists. Particularly worrisome is that other countries may also promote the issue of referendum, may also choose to leave the European Union. This is of course very unfortunate potential.
In addition, the United Kingdom selected the referendum out of the EU, also affect the power structure within the EU as a whole. This will further strengthen Germany’s power. Because the United Kingdom has left, now Germany and France is the EU economic, political and other sense is the most important of the two Member States. From this perspective, the United Kingdom out of the EU, also changed the balance of power within the European Union, not only economically, or political sense.
Wu Weiyi: generally speaking, do you think the United Kingdom referendum exit is a reflection of some specific disputes and problems within the EU, and can still see it as a more abstract level of an expression of anti-globalization?
Xiao·dehan: in a sense this is the case, it reflects a kind of anti-globalisation sentiment, or public opinion. In particular the number of low income, poor, or work in lower-skilled workers, they may feel threatened by globalization. Because they are the most liquid and easiest to transfer from one country to another country.
However, in a more general sense, I think the United Kingdom out of the EU referendum on this day, it is a very dark day in the history of the European Union. However, I also feel, it also can wake us up now in a signal to other Member States within the EU. It tells us, must now adopt a series of reforms in the EU.
That is also a satire of the reality, in the development of the European Union, has recently faced a series of crises, is to a large extent as a result of expanding the European Union, especially in countries of Central, Eastern and southern Europe to join the European Union, enlargement of the EU makes it difficult to the decision-making process of the EU as a whole.
Historically, United Kingdom is always supported EU enlargement as a whole, but now is the United Kingdom chose to leave the European Union, it is very ironic. But it seems to us that the country or left for the leaders of these countries, this means that the EU now needs to consider a number of different ways, needs to adopt a different policy approach. Zoo shot gorillas for save the children United
In fact, Belgium’s Prime Minister after the vote, has issued a statement, calling for a large rally the leaders of EU Member States to discuss the future of the European Union to discuss how to take some proper change, leaving the United Kingdom referendum outside the EU it does not happen again.
How to progress after the crisis?
Wu Weiyi: when last interviewed you in Shanghai, every time you say the European Union ahead of the development is in response to and handling crises. Now facing United Kingdom off EU referendum results, how do you see the future of the European Union?
Xiao·dehan: I think that the European Union now has two options. One is panicking and do nothing while the populist, as its development, development of the whole EU down more pessimistic future. Another option is to deal with such a situation, as soon as possible in a relatively short time to find a so-called democratic shortcomings, or for solutions and ways of democratic deficit.
However, the complexity of reality is that such a large body of the European Union or organization, it is more ambiguous, more complex in nature. Each country is a member of the European Union on the one hand, but on the other hand is on a separate implementation of their decision making process. This situation led, in many cases the interests of Member States and there will be a confrontation between the interests of the European Union.
However, I think this is a wrong interpretation. Because, in fact, European Master of Europe, and positions of all Member States to form a rival–the presentation is quarrelsome attitude towards. This is actually a way to encourage their domestic constituencies, they say where you stand with the EU position is antithetical to, and you are a part of the European Union, which is actually a very complex phenomenon.
So I think on this kind of phenomenon, we have to do something, we must change it, make people look beyond the European Union in terms of economic interests may be opposite will happen with their own economic interests, actually they have voice on EU’s decision as a whole, their vote counts.
Wu Weiyi: how to deal with United Kingdom exit, is on the European Union’s political wisdom, the specific mode of operation of the enormous challenge? You think how to deal with this matter?
Xiao·dehan: Yes, I think that the voters decided to leave, was actually under the influence of emotions. I think this group of people who choose to leave the EU, some of them were actually still have a nostalgic mood, is still miss United Kingdom as the world’s leading power, world-dominating, or is the leader in this kind of position.
But in fact, these days, so the time is long past for a long time. However, they also believe that if the United Kingdom is now leaving the EU, they becomes a stronger force in world politics, or, for a more important position. I think this is a totally wrong view, they leave the EU will be much weaker than the influence they have to stay in the EU. However, this still needs further observation.
As I mentioned earlier, in choosing the left most of the people who are older, younger, higher-educated majority voting in the European Union. I think the decision of those who choose to stay there is more rational, and the people who chose to leave is the opposite, is more affected by emotions left.
Wu Weiyi: this relates to the populist, populist sentiment or the democratic deficit problem, what do you think about this?
Xiao·dehan: of course, I am very supportive of democracy, but I think it should be more appropriate and more reasonable ways to do. Another point to note, most of the voters are under the influence of a false promise, they believe these false promises.
For example, in an interview with BBC jier·falaji. When he had encouraged voters to leave the European Union, to make a point, he said that the European Union every year or every month, I don’t know at the time, United Kingdom to the European Union of about 350 million pounds invested, he says the money is actually a better option is to not give the EU, but with the United Kingdom’s national health care system. That he was agitating people at the exit of a view. For about 30 minutes when a reporter interviewed him before, he confirmed that this money now can use the United Kingdom national health care system? Jier·falaji immediately denied that I have not said that this is the case. So this is a typical example.
And many used to persuade voters to choose–whether it is cast to stay or leave the EU – in particular those advocating removal of Europe information, most of them are disingenuous rhetoric. In my opinion, they are virtually impossible to achieve. For example United Kingdom think they can address the problems of migrants, or United Kingdom can set their own rules for dealing with rules of trade with other EU countries. All this type of view actually is impossible. For example if the United Kingdom wants to trade with other EU countries, must comply with the General rules in Europe, it is very obvious. So most of the commitments and promises to voters and agitation is meaningless, it is impossible to achieve.
Wu Weiyi: so we can now say that these people chose to leave the European Union, will soon see the consequences of it?
Xiao·dehan: Yes, that’s exactly what I was afraid of. I think the people voted to leave the EU, think they might get a better result, but in fact they will soon pay the price for such a decision.
Wu Weiyi: perhaps as you put it, these people make decisions just swayed by emotion, didn’t consider the consequences?
Xiao·dehan: there is such a situation, but of course they are because they have confidence in the exit of this wave politician advocates, believe their empty promises, will make such a decision.
Wu Weiyi: you are a Belgium citizen, Brussels United Kingdom exit did what? Has not made any public statements?
Xiao·dehan: certainly. Donald Tusk, now President of the European Council has issued a statement on the Internet, said he was very sorry for this, also said the EU will survive this crisis, to take some measures. In addition, Belgium’s Prime Minister, the Netherlands Prime Minister, leaders of other members expressed similar views and opinions. Everyone is waiting for someone actually saying this man is Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel, but she is still in the balance and take into account, but I don’t think she should be made soon.
Wu Weiyi: I think she should be very cautious about this, considering Germany’s influence and role across the European Union and the world.
Xiao·dehan: Yes, indeed. Before and I think MS Merkel in the position will be France, and Italy’s leadership, as well as other small country discuss leadership, ask them. May be issued a public statement.
Wu Weiyi: perhaps such a unified approach, issued a statement, it can be as a symbol of the EU the Joint United?
Xiao·dehan: Yes, of course, this is what I call the EU’s progress after each crisis point. Every crisis can be an opportunity or a chance actually. But the key is you have to know how to use such a crisis and opportunity. It is people like me still holding hopes and expectations. Our hope is that now the leaders of the Member States of the European Union, to learn from it, and to the reform of the EU to take some effective, making the EU a more effective and more democratic in decision-making organizations.
Wu Weiyi: of course, this is something the European Union, United Kingdom’s future needs on their own.
Xiao·dehan: Yes, of course. United Kingdom now completely on their own.